Phillies split DH with Marlins; pull within half-game of Braves

Baseball Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chase Utley and Placido Polanco each had two hits and two RBI, and Roy Oswalt won his fifth straight decision as the Phillies downed the Marlins, 7-4, to close out a day-night doubleheader and inch closer to the division lead.

Philadelphia lost the opener of the twin-bill, 7-1, thanks to Florida's Adalberto Mendez pitching six shutout innings in his major league debut, but with the win in the nightcap and Atlanta's loss to Pittsburgh earlier in the day, the club pulled within a half-game over the National League East front- runners by stopping a short two-game slide.

Oswalt (11-13) survived home-run balls to Mike Stanton, Hanley Ramirez and Cameron Maybin to get the win. The right-hander was charged with four runs on six hits and a walk to go with seven strikeouts in as many frames.

Anibal Sanchez (11-9) didn't have as much success as Mendez, surrendering seven runs on seven hits and three walks in four-plus innings for the Marlins, who had won four of five coming into this four-game series.

In the away second, Stanton gave the Marlins an early lead by crushing a payoff pitch into the second deck in left.

The Phillies responded with a five-spot in the bottom half. After loading the bases with no outs, Sanchez walked Carlos Ruiz to force in a run before Shane Victorino, who had three hits, plated Raul Ibanez with a base hit.

Though Dominic Brown was thrown out at home on the play, Polanco kept the inning alive by lacing a ground-rule double down the third base line to bring in a pair. Utley followed with a run-scoring single to left for a 5-1 game.

Oswalt walked Logan Morrison in the third in front of Ramirez before yielding a home run to the slugging shortstop, then served up a solo long ball to Maybin two innings later.

The Phillies got two of the runs back in the home fifth, as Polanco tripled off the wall in center to start the inning and raced home on Utley's single up the middle. Ibanez's one-out double made it a three-run game, and the bullpen behind Oswalt finished it off.

Ryan Madson retired three straight in the eighth after J.C. Romero walked the leadoff batter, and Brad Lidge worked around a two-out single in the ninth for his 21st save of the season.

Game Notes

This doubleheader was made necessary when the middle contest of a slated three-game set in Philadelphia on June 9 was postponed...The four earned runs were the most Oswalt has given up since his debut with the Phillies on July 30. He had allowed just one run in 21 1/3 innings coming into the game...Stanton's home run was his 17th, Ramirez now has 21 and Maybin upped his total to eight.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value

If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture.  Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).

For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot.  The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.

TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the  drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.

"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,'  it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."

"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.

Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash.  Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win. 

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.